China could double oil, gas production by 2030 to 700 mil mtoe

China's oil and gas production could double from current volumes to 700 million mt of oil equivalent by 2030, largely boosted by a growth in natural gas production as well as unconventional resources, the country's Ministry of Land and Resources said Thursday.

The MLR forecasts that from now until 2030, China's annual crude production will be sustained at over 200 million mt (4.02 million b/d), possibly hitting a peak of 250 million mt.

On the other hand, natural gas output will more than double to reach 300 billion cubic meters (29.01 Bcf/d) by 2030.

In addition, if targets for unconventional resource production are met -- of which unconventional oil output is at 50 million mt/year and unconventional gas output at 150 billion cu m/year -- China could see its total oil and gas production reach 700 million mtoe by 2030, the ministry said.

This would mean unconventional resources, including tight oil, shale gas and CBM, would account for a third of China's total oil and gas production.

In comparison, China produced 210 million mt of crude oil in 2013, the MLR said. This translates into an average of 4.22 million b/d.

Natural gas production last year rose 9.8% year on year to 120.9 billion cu m, of which coalbed methane output totaled more than 3 billion cu m while shale gas production totaled 200 million cu m, the ministry said.

Official production data for the year, which is compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics, is due to be released later this month.

The country's growth in production will be underpinned by significant additions to upstream reserves. Total geological oil resources in China could hit 103.7 billion mt by 2030, growing 36% from 2007, while natural gas resources could rise by 77% to 62 trillion cu m over the same period, the ministry predicted.

The largest contributor to reserves and production growth will be western Xinjiang province, which could account for 400 million mtoe of production by 2030. The area is relatively less explored than China's legacy oil and gas producing regions in the northeast and has become a priority for state-owned companies looking for new reserves.

Oil production from Xinjiang could rise to 40 million mt by 2030, up from 27 million mt in 2012, while gas output is expected to reach 70 billion cu m, compared with 25 billion cu m in 2012, according to the MLR.

Based on research conducted over 2012-2013, the MLR said geological resources in Xinjiang amount to some 22.8 billion mt of oil, roughly accounting for 22% of China's total. This was a 51% increase from a similar survey done in 2007, the ministry added.

Natural gas resources in Xinjiang currently total 17.5 trillion cu m, rising 76.8% from 2007.

CBM resources are 9 trillion cu m while shale oil resources amount to 6.1 billion mt, the MLR said.